The Latest Report from the National Student Clearinghouse is not Pretty.

Spring enrollment declined 1.9% according to the National Student Clearinghouse in their report, Current Term Enrollment Report – Spring 2015. This report is alarming because it is the third year in a row with declines in enrollment. However, there is both good and bad news.

The bad news is that fewer working adults are going to school and make up most of the decline. This decline hit for-profit and multistate institutions hard which are down 4.9% and 14.5% repsectively. Another segment hit hard is two year public institutions where enrollment is down 3.9%.

Four year public schools emerged relatively unscathed, becuase enrollement there is down only 0.1%

The picture is mixed for four year private schools. Larger private schools (>10k students) grew at 2.1%, Whereas smaller schools (<3k student) declined by 2.4%.

Interestingly, a handful of states show enrollment growth. Among them are both New Hampshire and Arizona. I wonder if SNHU, GCU and ASU skew these numbers.

My thesis, expounded in earlier posts, remains that economic and demographic trends will continue to create headwinds for all universities. The millenials are aging out of their school going years and an improving economy means people are working instead of studying. There will be fewer students as a result.

Also as a result, competition will heat up. Those schools that have compelling value propositions and serve students better will win. Those that don't will not.

Here is the link to the report

http://nscresearchcenter.org/currenttermenrollmentestimate-spring2015/