3 Implications of Changing Student Demographics
Two forecasts ought to give educators heartburn.
The first is from the Census bureau. It says that the number of 18-24 year olds will decrease for the foreseeable future. Take a look at this chart. The millennials are aging out of their college going years. As a result there will be fewer college age students to recruit.
Any school targeting the working adult might be particularly interested in the second forecast. It is also from the Census Bureau. It shows the actual and projected population numbers for 18 - 24 - year olds and 25 to 29 year-olds: 1996 through 2021. It is saying that the population of students on campus will shift slightly. As we see a decrease in the number of 18-24 year olds, we will see a greater percentage of 25-29 year olds.
These forecasts will have 3 implications for post-secondary institutions.
First, competitive intensity will increase. Because there are going to be fewer students in school and because they will older and likely more part time , there will be more class room space then necessary. Couple this with the growth in online learning and we have a supply and demand imbalance. Schools will have to compete more aggressively than they have. Some are winning and have shown it can be done. Others have been slow to act.
Next, we will see a change in the student experience required to recruit and retain the changing population. WGU, Liberty and Grand Canyon are testaments to this. They have focused on a set of students and have dialed in both a value proposition and experience that resonate deeply with their students.
Finally, the financial implications are huge. The winners must invest to maintain or grow enrollment. The losers will forgo tuition revenue and cash flow as their student population and tuition revenue decrease.
Notes:
1) (Numbers in thousands) SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2012. Note: Civilian non-institutionalized population, includes armed forces living off post or with their families on post. Internet release date: December 2013
2) Projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2008 National Population Projections, ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimate. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 16, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/ popest/data/index.html; and 2008 National Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/population/www/ projections/ 2008projections.html. (This figure was prepared March 2012.)
